Bitcoin forms a death cross, dropping below $90K. Analysts warn of a potential bear market with targets at $75K, $56K, and $52K.
Bitcoin (BTC) has formed a death cross, where its short-term moving average has dropped below the long-term moving average. This technical pattern has been known to suggest a shift in price direction.
Over the past year, similar patterns have marked local bottoms, but in 2022, a death cross signaled the start of a bear market.
Bitcoin Falls Below $90K as Trend Shifts
Bitcoin is priced at around $90,500 at press time after falling almost 6% in the last 24 hours and by 15% over the past week. This decline puts Bitcoin nearly 30% below its all-time high of above $126,000 recorded on October 6, 2025. The recent move below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages has completed a death cross pattern on the chart.
According to analyst Ali Martinez, every death cross in the past year led to a recovery. But in 2022, a similar pattern led to a longer market decline. The current pattern and the speed of the drop resemble the 2022 setup.
The market will be watching whether the current drop holds above support levels or continues further. If it mirrors the 2022 structure, a prolonged downtrend may be possible.
Furthermore, Bitcoin is now below the MVRV mean price of $98,650. This model tracks the difference between market value and realized value to define valuation zones. When the price drops below the mean, it often signals movement into undervalued territory. On November 16, Bitcoin was trading at $94,390, below the model’s neutral zone.
Below $98,650, the next key Bitcoin $BTC levels are:
• $75,740
• $56,160
• $52,820 pic.twitter.com/gMmWIUZ0nY— Ali (@ali_charts) November 17, 2025
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Martinez has pointed out three lower price targets to monitor if the drop continues, situated at $75,740, $56,160, and $52,820. These levels correspond to the model’s -0.5 deviation, realized price, and -1.0 deviation, respectively. Each level has been linked to past market bottoms. If Bitcoin cannot reclaim the $98,650 zone soon, the danger becomes even more profound.
Past Cycles Suggest Bottom Could Come in Late 2026
In a recent video, Martinez referenced past Bitcoin cycles. In 2017 and 2021, the asset peaked and then entered bear markets that each lasted around 364 days. The first ended with an 84% drop, while the second followed with a 77% decline. If the current cycle top was in October 2025, a similar pattern would suggest a bottom in October 2026.
The analyst said this may present an “ideal buying opportunity” based on the timing of past bear market lows. This aligns with the structure seen in earlier cycles, where a long drawdown was followed by accumulation before the next upward move.
Mixed Views on Bitcoin’s Next Move
Some analysts believe Bitcoin is now in a broader bearish trend. As CryptoPotato previously reported, data shows more Bitcoin is being sent to exchanges, which may signal plans to sell. Others noted that the market structure has shifted in a more permanent way, which could mean longer periods of price weakness ahead.
However, analyst Egrag Crypto disagrees. He said, “Fitting charts into a narrative is one of the biggest traps in TA.” He believes current market conditions are different from 2021 and that moving averages no longer give reliable signals. Instead, he points to the 21-week EMA and added that the market is still holding its structure.
He argues the bullish trend remains intact and sees the current move as a retest of long-term support. Additionally, Ergag maintains a view that the market is heading toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension near $175,000.
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