The U.S. capture of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro has done more than upend Caracas—it has sent shockwaves through global prediction markets, where traders are rapidly repricing the odds of political upheaval from Latin America to the Middle East.
Summary
- What Washington describes as a targeted law-enforcement operation has become a catalyst for a broader risk reset.
- Betting markets treat Maduro’s removal as a signal event that could foreshadow further geopolitical breaks in fragile or adversarial states.
- On Polymarket, more than $1 million was wagered Tuesday alone on contracts tied to Iran’s leadership.
According to U.S. officials, the operation ended with Maduro and his wife transported to New York to face federal narco-terrorism and related charges. Almost immediately, crypto traders began extrapolating the fallout far beyond Venezuela.
On Polymarket, where people bet on the outcome of real-world events using crypto, more than $1 million was wagered Tuesday alone on contracts tied to Iran’s leadership. The market titled “Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran” implied an 11% probability by Jan. 31, rising to 34% by the end of June 2026 and 47% by year-end.
Related bets reflected growing regional anxiety. Contracts pricing whether Israel would strike Iran by March 31, 2026 jumped to near coin-flip odds—up roughly 22 percentage points in a single day—as traders linked the Venezuela shock to wider escalation risks in the Middle East.
Venezuela itself remains the most heavily traded theme. A Polymarket contract predicting who will lead the country by the end of 2026 has drawn nearly $895,000 in volume, underscoring deep uncertainty around succession.
Interim President Delcy Rodríguez currently leads with a 44% implied probability, followed by opposition figures María Corina Machado and Edmundo González at roughly 14% and 15%. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López trails near 7%.
Interest has been amplified by reports that U.S. policymakers considered “stability-first” options within Venezuela’s existing power structure, signaling a preference for continuity over a hard break.
Are Cuba and Colombia Next?
President Trump’s off-the-cuff remarks have poured gasoline on markets tied to Cuba and Colombia. Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump said a military operation in Colombia “sounds good” and suggested Cuba appears “ready to fall.”
Trump later told reporters that Cuba “could be next,” arguing the island’s economy depends heavily on Venezuelan oil and income that may no longer flow. On Polymarket, the contract betting on President Miguel Díaz-Canel leaving office by June 30 now implies a 20% chance—down sharply from 61% on Jan. 3, when news of Maduro’s capture first broke.
Colombia has also entered the crosshairs. After Trump floated the idea of an “Operation Colombia” while criticizing leftist President Gustavo Petro, markets priced a roughly 15% chance Petro is out by the end of June—soaring to as high as 95% by year-end.
For traders, Maduro’s fall has become more than a Venezuelan story. It is now a template—rightly or wrongly—for pricing political rupture across an increasingly volatile global map.
