Israel and Lebanon enter US-brokered 10-day ceasefire without Hezbollah

Israel and Lebanon have entered a 10-day U.S.-brokered ceasefire that excludes Hezbollah. The “Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026” market is at 93.7% YES, with Hezbollah’s exclusion keeping traders skeptical about a broader deal.

Because Hezbollah is not party to the ceasefire, the market is pricing a gap between a state-level truce and a formal ceasefire that includes the group. The June 30 market sits at 96.6% YES, up from 67% a week ago. The April 30 market is at 93.7% YES, a 7-point increase over 13 days, with traders assigning higher confidence to later deadlines.

The Israel suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026 market surged to 96.2% YES, up from 87% just 24 hours ago. This move directly tracks the ceasefire announcement, with traders now pricing a near-certainty that Israel will halt offensive operations in Lebanon.

Total volume across relevant markets is $1,205,891 in USDC. It would take $50,093 to move the April 30 ceasefire market 5 points, indicating thick liquidity. The largest price move was a 13-point spike at 1:16 PM, suggesting a large order or cluster of orders hit the book at once.

Without Hezbollah’s inclusion, the ceasefire’s durability is an open question. The U.S. State Department brokered the deal, and potential extensions depend on Lebanon’s actions. At 94¢, YES shares pay 1.06x, a thin return that prices in high probability of a formal ceasefire announcement before the deadline.

Watch for Hezbollah statements, IDF operational updates, or U.S. diplomatic moves tied to Lebanese sovereignty steps, any of which could shift these markets.

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